Journal cover Journal topic
Wind Energy Science The interactive open-access journal of the European Academy of Wind Energy
Journal topic
Volume 1, issue 2
Wind Energ. Sci., 1, 115-128, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-1-115-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Wind Energ. Sci., 1, 115-128, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-1-115-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research articles 24 Aug 2016

Research articles | 24 Aug 2016

Year-to-year correlation, record length, and overconfidence in wind resource assessment

Nicola Bodini et al.
Data sets

Historical and Homogenized surface wind speeds for Canada. Update to December 2014 Environment and Climate Change Canada https://www.ec.gc.ca/dccha-ahccd/default.asp?lang=En\&n=552AFB3E-1

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Short summary
Year-to-year variability of wind speeds limits the certainty of wind-plant preconstruction energy estimates ("resource assessments"). Using 62-year records from 60 stations across Canada we show that resource highs and lows persist for decades, which makes estimates 2–3 times less certain than if annual levels were uncorrelated. Comparing chronological data records with randomly permuted versions of the same data reveals this in an unambiguous and easy-to-understand way.
Year-to-year variability of wind speeds limits the certainty of wind-plant preconstruction...
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