Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-489-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-489-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Apr 2020
Research article |
| 17 Apr 2020
| 17 Apr 2020
The importance of round-robin validation when assessing machine-learning-based vertical extrapolation of wind speeds
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado, USA
Mike Optis
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado, USA
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Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Rob Newsom, Colleen Kaul, Stefano Letizia, Mikhail Pekour, Nicholas Hamilton, Duli Chand, Donna M. Flynn, Nicola Bodini, and Patrick Moriarty
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In this paper, we have assessed to which extent mesoscale numerical weather prediction models are more accurate than state-of-the-art reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy. The conclusions of our work will be of primary importance to the wind industry for recommending the best data sources for wind resource modeling.
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We develop two machine-learning-based approaches to temporally extrapolate uncertainty in hub-height wind speed modeled by a numerical weather prediction model. We test our approaches in the California Outer Continental Shelf, where a significant offshore wind energy development is currently being planned, and we find that both provide accurate results.
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Offshore wind turbines are huge, with rotor blades soon to extend up to nearly 300 m. Accurate modeling of winds across these heights is crucial for accurate estimates of energy production. However, we lack sufficient observations at these heights but have plenty of near-surface observations. Here we show that a basic machine-learning model can provide very accurate estimates of winds in this area, and much better than conventional techniques.
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Calculations of annual energy production (AEP) and its uncertainty are critical for wind farm financial transactions. Standard industry practice assumes that different uncertainty categories within an AEP calculation are uncorrelated and can therefore be combined through a sum of squares approach. In this project, we show the limits of this assumption by performing operational AEP estimates for over 470 wind farms in the United States and propose a more accurate way to combine uncertainties.
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While turbulence dissipation rate (ε) is an essential parameter for the prediction of wind speed, its current representation in weather prediction models is inaccurate, especially in complex terrain. In this study, we leverage the potential of machine-learning techniques to provide a more accurate representation of turbulence dissipation rate. Our results show a 30 % reduction in the average error compared to the current model representation of ε and a total elimination of its average bias.
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The growth of wind farms in the central United States in the last decade has been staggering. This study looked at how wind farms affect the recovery of wind wakes – the disturbed air behind wind turbines. In places like the US Great Plains, phenomena such as low-level jets can form, changing how wind farms work. We studied how wind wakes recover under different weather conditions using real-world data, which is important for making wind energy more efficient and reliable.
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Short summary
Short summary
In 2020, lidar-mounted buoys owned by the US Department of Energy (DOE) were deployed off the California coast in two wind energy lease areas and provided valuable year-long analyses of offshore low-level jet (LLJ) characteristics at heights relevant to wind turbines. In addition to the LLJ climatology, this work provides validation of LLJ representation in atmospheric models that are essential for assessing the potential energy yield of offshore wind farms.
David Rosencrans, Julie K. Lundquist, Mike Optis, Alex Rybchuk, Nicola Bodini, and Michael Rossol
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 555–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The US offshore wind industry is developing rapidly. Using yearlong simulations of wind plants in the US mid-Atlantic, we assess the impacts of wind turbine wakes. While wakes are the strongest and longest during summertime stably stratified conditions, when New England grid demand peaks, they are predictable and thus manageable. Over a year, wakes reduce power output by over 35 %. Wakes in a wind plant contribute the most to that reduction, while wakes between wind plants play a secondary role.
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The U.S. offshore wind industry is growing rapidly. Expansion into cold climates will subject turbines and personnel to hazardous freezing. We analyze the 20-year freezing risk for US East Coast wind areas based on numerical weather prediction simulations and further assess impacts from wind farm wakes over one winter season. Sea-spray icing at 10 m can occur up to 66 hours per month. However, turbine–atmosphere interactions reduce icing hours within wind plant areas.
Nicola Bodini, Mike Optis, Stephanie Redfern, David Rosencrans, Alex Rybchuk, Julie K. Lundquist, Vincent Pronk, Simon Castagneri, Avi Purkayastha, Caroline Draxl, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, Ethan Young, Billy Roberts, Evan Rosenlieb, and Walter Musial
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-490, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-490, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), an updated resource for offshore wind information in the U.S. It replaces the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, offering improved accuracy through advanced weather prediction models. The data underwent regional tuning and validation, and can be accessed at no cost.
Nicola Bodini, Simon Castagneri, and Mike Optis
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 607–620, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-607-2023, 2023
Short summary
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The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has published updated maps of the wind resource along all US coasts. Given the upcoming offshore wind development, it is essential to quantify the uncertainty that comes with the modeled wind resource data set. The paper proposes a novel approach to quantify this numerical uncertainty by leveraging available observations along the US East Coast.
Alex Rybchuk, Timothy W. Juliano, Julie K. Lundquist, David Rosencrans, Nicola Bodini, and Mike Optis
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 2085–2098, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2085-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical weather prediction models are used to predict how wind turbines will interact with the atmosphere. Here, we characterize the uncertainty associated with the choice of turbulence parameterization on modeled wakes. We find that simulated wind speed deficits in turbine wakes can be significantly sensitive to the choice of turbulence parameterization. As such, predictions of future generated power are also sensitive to turbulence parameterization choice.
Vincent Pronk, Nicola Bodini, Mike Optis, Julie K. Lundquist, Patrick Moriarty, Caroline Draxl, Avi Purkayastha, and Ethan Young
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 487–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we have assessed to which extent mesoscale numerical weather prediction models are more accurate than state-of-the-art reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy. The conclusions of our work will be of primary importance to the wind industry for recommending the best data sources for wind resource modeling.
Nicola Bodini, Weiming Hu, Mike Optis, Guido Cervone, and Stefano Alessandrini
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1363–1377, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1363-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We develop two machine-learning-based approaches to temporally extrapolate uncertainty in hub-height wind speed modeled by a numerical weather prediction model. We test our approaches in the California Outer Continental Shelf, where a significant offshore wind energy development is currently being planned, and we find that both provide accurate results.
Mithu Debnath, Paula Doubrawa, Mike Optis, Patrick Hawbecker, and Nicola Bodini
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1043–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1043-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1043-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
As the offshore wind industry emerges on the US East Coast, a comprehensive understanding of the wind resource – particularly extreme events – is vital to the industry's success. We leverage a year of data of two floating lidars to quantify and characterize the frequent occurrence of high-wind-shear and low-level-jet events, both of which will have a considerable impact on turbine operation. We find that almost 100 independent long events occur throughout the year.
Hannah Livingston, Nicola Bodini, and Julie K. Lundquist
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2021-68, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2021-68, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we assess whether hub-height turbulence can easily be quantified from either other hub-height variables or ground-level measurements in complex terrain. We find a large variability across the three considered locations when trying to model hub-height turbulence intensity and turbulence kinetic energy. Our results highlight the nonlinear and complex nature of atmospheric turbulence, so that more powerful techniques should instead be recommended to model hub-height turbulence.
Mike Optis, Nicola Bodini, Mithu Debnath, and Paula Doubrawa
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 935–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-935-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-935-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Offshore wind turbines are huge, with rotor blades soon to extend up to nearly 300 m. Accurate modeling of winds across these heights is crucial for accurate estimates of energy production. However, we lack sufficient observations at these heights but have plenty of near-surface observations. Here we show that a basic machine-learning model can provide very accurate estimates of winds in this area, and much better than conventional techniques.
Alex Rybchuk, Mike Optis, Julie K. Lundquist, Michael Rossol, and Walt Musial
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-50, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We characterize the wind resource off the coast of California by conducting simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model between 2000 and 2019. We compare newly simulated winds to those from the WIND Toolkit. The newly simulated winds are substantially stronger, particularly in the late summer. We also conduct a refined analysis at three areas that are being considered for commercial development, finding that stronger winds translates to substantially more power here.
Nicola Bodini and Mike Optis
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 1435–1448, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1435-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1435-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Calculations of annual energy production (AEP) and its uncertainty are critical for wind farm financial transactions. Standard industry practice assumes that different uncertainty categories within an AEP calculation are uncorrelated and can therefore be combined through a sum of squares approach. In this project, we show the limits of this assumption by performing operational AEP estimates for over 470 wind farms in the United States and propose a more accurate way to combine uncertainties.
Nicola Bodini, Julie K. Lundquist, and Mike Optis
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4271–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4271-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4271-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
While turbulence dissipation rate (ε) is an essential parameter for the prediction of wind speed, its current representation in weather prediction models is inaccurate, especially in complex terrain. In this study, we leverage the potential of machine-learning techniques to provide a more accurate representation of turbulence dissipation rate. Our results show a 30 % reduction in the average error compared to the current model representation of ε and a total elimination of its average bias.
Mike Optis, Jordan Perr-Sauer, Caleb Philips, Anna E. Craig, Joseph C. Y. Lee, Travis Kemper, Shuangwen Sheng, Eric Simley, Lindy Williams, Monte Lunacek, John Meissner, and M. Jason Fields
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2019-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2019-12, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
As global wind capacity continues to grow, the need for accurate operational analyses of a rapidly growing fleet of wind power plants has increased in proportion. To address this need, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has released OpenOA, an open-source codebase for operational analysis of wind farms. It is envisioned that OpenOA will evolve into a widely used codebase supported by a large group of global wind energy experts. This paper provides a summary of OpenOA.
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Measuring the variability of the wind is essential to operate the wind turbines safely. Lidars of different configurations have been placed on the turbines’ nacelle to measure the inflow remotely. This work found that the multiple-beam lidar is the only one out of the three employed nacelle lidars that can give detailed information about the inflow variability. The other two commercial lidars, which have two and four beams, respectively, measure only the fluctuation in the along-wind direction.
Mads Baungaard, Maarten Paul van der Laan, and Mark Kelly
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 783–800, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-783-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-783-2022, 2022
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Wind turbine wakes are dependent on the atmospheric conditions, and it is therefore important to be able to simulate in various different atmospheric conditions. This paper concerns the specific case of an unstable atmospheric surface layer, which is the lower part of the typical daytime atmospheric boundary layer. A simple flow model is suggested and tested for a range of single-wake scenarios, and it shows promising results for velocity deficit predictions.
Oliver Maas and Siegfried Raasch
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 715–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-715-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-715-2022, 2022
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In the future there will be very large wind farm clusters in the German Bight. This study investigates how the wind field is affected by these very large wind farms and how much energy can be extracted by the wind turbines. Very large wind farms do not only reduce the wind speed but can also cause a change in wind direction or temperature. The extractable energy per wind turbine is much smaller for large wind farms than for small wind farms due to the reduced wind speed inside the wind farms.
Lindsay M. Sheridan, Caleb Phillips, Alice C. Orrell, Larry K. Berg, Heidi Tinnesand, Raj K. Rai, Sagi Zisman, Dmitry Duplyakin, and Julia E. Flaherty
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 659–676, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-659-2022, 2022
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The small wind community relies on simplified wind models and energy production simulation tools to obtain energy generation expectations. We gathered actual wind speed and turbine production data across the US to test the accuracy of models and tools for small wind turbines. This study provides small wind installers and owners with the error metrics and sources of error associated with using models and tools to make performance estimates, empowering them to adjust expectations accordingly.
Yiyin Chen, Feng Guo, David Schlipf, and Po Wen Cheng
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 539–558, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-539-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-539-2022, 2022
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Lidar-assisted control of wind turbines requires a wind field generator capable of simulating wind evolution. Out of this need, we extend the Veers method for 3D wind field generation to 4D and propose a two-step Cholesky decomposition approach. Based on this, we develop a 4D wind field generator – evoTurb – coupled with TurbSim and Mann turbulence generator. We further investigate the impacts of the spatial discretization in 4D wind fields on lidar simulations to provide practical suggestions.
Vincent Pronk, Nicola Bodini, Mike Optis, Julie K. Lundquist, Patrick Moriarty, Caroline Draxl, Avi Purkayastha, and Ethan Young
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 487–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-487-2022, 2022
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In this paper, we have assessed to which extent mesoscale numerical weather prediction models are more accurate than state-of-the-art reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy. The conclusions of our work will be of primary importance to the wind industry for recommending the best data sources for wind resource modeling.
Tobias Klaas-Witt and Stefan Emeis
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 413–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-413-2022, 2022
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Light detection and ranging (lidar) has become a valuable technology to assess the wind resource at hub height of modern wind turbines. However, because of their measurement principle, common lidars suffer from errors at orographically complex, i.e. hilly or mountainous, sites. This study analyses the impact of the five main influencing factors in a non-dimensional, model-based parameter study.
Adam S. Wise, James M. T. Neher, Robert S. Arthur, Jeffrey D. Mirocha, Julie K. Lundquist, and Fotini K. Chow
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-367-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-367-2022, 2022
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Wind turbine wake behavior in hilly terrain depends on various atmospheric conditions. We modeled a wind turbine located on top of a ridge in Portugal during typical nighttime and daytime atmospheric conditions and validated these model results with observational data. During nighttime conditions, the wake deflected downwards following the terrain. During daytime conditions, the wake deflected upwards. These results can provide insight into wind turbine siting and operation in hilly regions.
Sonja Krüger, Gerald Steinfeld, Martin Kraft, and Laura J. Lukassen
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 323–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-323-2022, 2022
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Detailed numerical simulations of turbines in atmospheric conditions are challenging with regard to their computational demand. We coupled an atmospheric flow model and a turbine model in order to deliver extensive details about the flow and the turbine response within reasonable computational time. A comparison to measurement data was performed and showed a very good agreement. The efficiency of the tool enables applications such as load calculation in wind farms or during low-level-jet events.
Michael F. Howland, Aditya S. Ghate, Jesús Bas Quesada, Juan José Pena Martínez, Wei Zhong, Felipe Palou Larrañaga, Sanjiva K. Lele, and John O. Dabiri
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 345–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-345-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-345-2022, 2022
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Wake steering control, in which turbines are intentionally misaligned with the incident wind, has demonstrated potential to increase wind farm energy. We investigate wake steering control methods in simulations of a wind farm operating in the terrestrial diurnal cycle. We develop a statistical wind direction forecast to improve wake steering in flows with time-varying states. Closed-loop wake steering control increases wind farm energy production, compared to baseline and open-loop control.
Paul Hulsman, Martin Wosnik, Vlaho Petrović, Michael Hölling, and Martin Kühn
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 237–257, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-237-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-237-2022, 2022
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Due to the possibility of mapping the wake fast at multiple locations with the WindScanner, a thorough understanding of the development of the wake is acquired at different inflow conditions and operational conditions. The lidar velocity data and the energy dissipation rate compared favourably with hot-wire data from previous experiments, lending credibility to the measurement technique and methodology used here. This will aid the process to further improve existing wake models.
Ingrid Neunaber, Joachim Peinke, and Martin Obligado
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 201–219, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-201-2022, 2022
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Wind turbines are often clustered within wind farms. A consequence is that some wind turbines may be exposed to the wakes of other turbines, which reduces their lifetime due to the wake turbulence. Knowledge of the wake is thus important, and we carried out wind tunnel experiments to investigate the wakes. We show how models that describe wakes of bluff bodies can help to improve the understanding of wind turbine wakes and wind turbine wake models, particularly by including a virtual origin.
Elena Cantero, Javier Sanz, Fernando Borbón, Daniel Paredes, and Almudena García
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 221–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-221-2022, 2022
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The impact of atmospheric stability on wind energy is widely demonstrated, so we have to know how to characterise it.
This work based on a meteorological mast located in a complex terrain compares and evaluates different instrument set-ups and methodologies for stability characterisation. The methods are examined considering their theoretical background, implementation complexity, instrumentation requirements and practical use in connection with wind energy applications.
Peter Brugger, Corey Markfort, and Fernando Porté-Agel
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 185–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-185-2022, 2022
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Wind turbines create a wake of reduced wind speeds downstream of the rotor. The wake does not necessarily have a straight, pencil-like shape but can meander similar to a smoke plume. We investigated this wake meandering and observed that the downstream transport velocity is slower than the wind speed contrary to previous assumptions and that the evolution of the atmospheric turbulence over time impacts wake meandering on distances typical for the turbine spacing in wind farms.
Ida Marie Solbrekke, Asgeir Sorteberg, and Hilde Haakenstad
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1501–1519, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1501-2021, 2021
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We validate new high-resolution data set (NORA3) for offshore wind power purposes for the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea. The aim of the validation is to ensure that NORA3 can act as a wind resource data set in the planning phase for future offshore wind power installations in the area of concern. The general conclusion of the validation is that NORA3 is well suited for wind power estimates but gives slightly conservative estimates of the offshore wind metrics.
Liang Dong, Wai Hou Lio, and Eric Simley
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1491–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1491-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1491-2021, 2021
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This paper suggests that the impacts of different turbulence models should be considered as uncertainties while evaluating the benefits of lidar-assisted control (LAC) in wind turbine design. The value creation of LAC, evaluated using the Kaimal turbulence model, will be diminished if the Mann turbulence model is used instead. In particular, the difference in coherence is more significant for larger rotors.
Alexander Basse, Doron Callies, Anselm Grötzner, and Lukas Pauscher
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1473–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1473-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1473-2021, 2021
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This study investigates systematic, seasonal biases in the long-term correction of short-term wind measurements (< 1 year). Two popular measure–correlate–predict (MCP) methods yield remarkably different results. Six reanalysis data sets serve as long-term data. Besides experimental results, theoretical findings are presented which link the mechanics of the methods and the properties of the reanalysis data sets to the observations. Finally, recommendations for wind park planners are derived.
Vasilis Pettas, Matthias Kretschmer, Andrew Clifton, and Po Wen Cheng
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1455–1472, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1455-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1455-2021, 2021
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This study aims to quantify the effect of inter-farm interactions based on long-term measurement data from the Alpha Ventus (AV) wind farm and the nearby FINO1 platform. AV was initially the only operating farm in the area, but in subsequent years several farms were built around it. This setup allows us to quantify the farm wake effects on the microclimate of AV and also on turbine loads and operational characteristics depending on the distance and size of the neighboring farms.
Rogier Floors, Merete Badger, Ib Troen, Kenneth Grogan, and Finn-Hendrik Permien
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1379–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1379-2021, 2021
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Wind turbines are frequently placed in forests. We investigate the potential of using satellites to characterize the land surface for wind flow modelling. Maps of forest properties are generated from satellite data and converted to flow modelling maps. Validation is carried out at 10 sites. Using the novel satellite-based maps leads to lower errors of the power density than land cover databases, which demonstrates the value of using satellite-based land cover maps for flow modelling.
Christoffer Hallgren, Stefan Ivanell, Heiner Körnich, Ville Vakkari, and Erik Sahlée
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1205–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1205-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1205-2021, 2021
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As wind power becomes more popular, there is a growing demand for accurate power production forecasts. In this paper we investigated different methods to improve wind power forecasts for an offshore location in the Baltic Sea, using both simple and more advanced techniques. The performance of the methods is evaluated for different weather conditions. Smoothing the forecast was found to be the best method in general, but we recommend selecting which method to use based on the forecasted weather.
Mark Kelly, Søren Juhl Andersen, and Ásta Hannesdóttir
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1227–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1227-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1227-2021, 2021
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Via 11 years of measurements, we made a representative ensemble of wind ramps in terms of acceleration, mean speed, and shear. Constrained turbulence and large-eddy simulations were coupled to an aeroelastic model for each ensemble member. Ramp acceleration was found to dominate the maxima of thrust-associated loads, with a ramp-induced increase of 45 %–50 % plus ~ 3 % per 0.1 m/s2 of bulk ramp acceleration magnitude. The LES indicates that the ramps (and such loads) persist through the farm.
Davide Conti, Nikolay Dimitrov, Alfredo Peña, and Thomas Herges
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1117–1142, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1117-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1117-2021, 2021
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We carry out a probabilistic calibration of the Dynamic Wake Meandering (DWM) model using high-spatial- and high-temporal-resolution nacelle-based lidar measurements of the wake flow field. The experimental data were collected from the Scaled Wind Farm Technology (SWiFT) facility in Texas. The analysis includes the velocity deficit, wake-added turbulence, and wake meandering features under various inflow wind and atmospheric-stability conditions.
Tanvi Gupta and Somnath Baidya Roy
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1089–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1089-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1089-2021, 2021
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Wind turbines extract momentum from atmospheric flow and convert that to electricity. This study explores recovery processes in wind farms that replenish the momentum so that wind farms can continue to function. Experiments with a numerical model show that momentum transport by turbulent eddies from above the wind turbines is the major contributor to recovery except for strong wind conditions and low wind turbine density, where horizontal advection can also play a major role.
Mithu Debnath, Paula Doubrawa, Mike Optis, Patrick Hawbecker, and Nicola Bodini
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1043–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1043-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1043-2021, 2021
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As the offshore wind industry emerges on the US East Coast, a comprehensive understanding of the wind resource – particularly extreme events – is vital to the industry's success. We leverage a year of data of two floating lidars to quantify and characterize the frequent occurrence of high-wind-shear and low-level-jet events, both of which will have a considerable impact on turbine operation. We find that almost 100 independent long events occur throughout the year.
Jeanie A. Aird, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Tristan J. Shepherd, and Sara C. Pryor
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1015–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1015-2021, 2021
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Low-level jets (LLJs) are pronounced maxima in wind speed profiles affecting wind turbine performance and longevity. We present a climatology of LLJs over Iowa using output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and determine the rotor plane conditions when they occur. LLJ characteristics are highly sensitive to the identification criteria applied, and different (unique) LLJs are extracted with each criterion. LLJ characteristics also vary with different model output resolution.
Janna Kristina Seifert, Martin Kraft, Martin Kühn, and Laura J. Lukassen
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 997–1014, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-997-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-997-2021, 2021
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Fluctuations in the power output of wind turbines are one of the major challenges in the integration and utilisation of wind energy. By analysing the power output fluctuations of wind turbine pairs in an offshore wind farm, we show that their correlation depends on their location within the wind farm and their inflow. The main outcome is that these correlation dependencies can be characterised by statistics of the power output of the wind turbines and sorted by a clustering algorithm.
Mike Optis, Nicola Bodini, Mithu Debnath, and Paula Doubrawa
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 935–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-935-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-935-2021, 2021
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Offshore wind turbines are huge, with rotor blades soon to extend up to nearly 300 m. Accurate modeling of winds across these heights is crucial for accurate estimates of energy production. However, we lack sufficient observations at these heights but have plenty of near-surface observations. Here we show that a basic machine-learning model can provide very accurate estimates of winds in this area, and much better than conventional techniques.
Davide Conti, Vasilis Pettas, Nikolay Dimitrov, and Alfredo Peña
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 841–866, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-841-2021, 2021
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We define two lidar-based procedures for improving the accuracy of wind turbine load assessment under wake conditions. The first approach incorporates lidar observations directly into turbulence fields serving as inputs for aeroelastic simulations; the second approach imposes lidar-fitted wake deficit time series on the turbulence fields. The uncertainty in the lidar-based power and load predictions is quantified for a variety of scanning configurations and atmosphere turbulence conditions.
Maarten Paul van der Laan, Mark Kelly, and Mads Baungaard
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 777–790, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-777-2021, 2021
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Wind farms operate in the atmospheric boundary layer, and their performance is strongly dependent on the atmospheric conditions. We propose a simple model of the atmospheric boundary layer that can be used as an inflow model for wind farm simulations for isolating a number of atmospheric effects – namely, the change in wind direction with height and atmospheric boundary layer depth. In addition, the simple model is shown to be consistent with two similarity theories.
Alayna Farrell, Jennifer King, Caroline Draxl, Rafael Mudafort, Nicholas Hamilton, Christopher J. Bay, Paul Fleming, and Eric Simley
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 737–758, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-737-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-737-2021, 2021
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Most current wind turbine wake models struggle to accurately simulate spatially variant wind conditions at a low computational cost. In this paper, we present an adaptation of NREL's FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) wake model, which calculates wake losses in a heterogeneous flow field using local weather measurement inputs. Two validation studies are presented where the adapted model consistently outperforms previous versions of FLORIS that simulated uniform flow only.
Carlo Cossu
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 663–675, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-663-2021, 2021
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We deal with wake redirection, which is a promising approach designed to mitigate turbine–wake interactions which have a negative impact on the performance and lifetime of wind farms. We show that substantial power gains can be obtained by tilting the rotors of spanwise-periodic wind-turbine arrays in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Optimal relative rotor sizes and spanwise spacings exist, which maximize the global power extracted from the wind.
Alfredo Peña, Branko Kosović, and Jeffrey D. Mirocha
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 645–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-645-2021, 2021
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We investigate the ability of a community-open weather model to simulate the turbulent atmosphere by comparison with measurements from a 250 m mast at a flat site in Denmark. We found that within three main atmospheric stability regimes, idealized simulations reproduce closely the characteristics of the observations with regards to the mean wind, direction, turbulent fluxes, and turbulence spectra. Our work provides foundation for the use of the weather model in multiscale real-time simulations.
Christian Grinderslev, Niels Nørmark Sørensen, Sergio González Horcas, Niels Troldborg, and Frederik Zahle
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 627–643, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-627-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-627-2021, 2021
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This study investigates aero-elasticity of wind turbines present in the turbulent and chaotic wind flow of the lower atmosphere, using fluid–structure interaction simulations. This method combines structural response computations with high-fidelity modeling of the turbulent wind flow, using a novel turbulence model which combines the capabilities of large-eddy simulations for atmospheric flows with improved delayed detached eddy simulations for the separated flow near the rotor.
Jörge Schneemann, Frauke Theuer, Andreas Rott, Martin Dörenkämper, and Martin Kühn
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 521–538, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-521-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-521-2021, 2021
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A wind farm can reduce the wind speed in front of it just by its presence and thus also slightly impact the available power. In our study we investigate this so-called global-blockage effect, measuring the inflow of a large offshore wind farm with a laser-based remote sensing method up to several kilometres in front of the farm. Our results show global blockage under a certain atmospheric condition and operational state of the wind farm; during other conditions it is not visible in our data.
Julia Gottschall and Martin Dörenkämper
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 505–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-505-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-505-2021, 2021
Kamran Shirzadeh, Horia Hangan, Curran Crawford, and Pooyan Hashemi Tari
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 477–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-477-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-477-2021, 2021
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Wind energy systems work coherently in atmospheric flows which are gusty. This causes highly variable power productions and high fatigue loads on the system, which together hold back further growth of the wind energy market. This study demonstrates an alternative experimental procedure to investigate some extreme wind condition effects on wind turbines based on the IEC standard. This experiment can be improved upon and used to develop new control concepts, mitigating the effect of gusts.
Inga Reinwardt, Levin Schilling, Dirk Steudel, Nikolay Dimitrov, Peter Dalhoff, and Michael Breuer
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 441–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-441-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-441-2021, 2021
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This analysis validates the DWM model based on loads and power production measured at an onshore wind farm. Special focus is given to the performance of a version of the DWM model that was previously recalibrated with a lidar system at the site. The results of the recalibrated wake model agree very well with the measurements. Furthermore, lidar measurements of the wind speed deficit and the wake meandering are incorporated in the DWM model definition in order to decrease the uncertainties.
Christian Ingenhorst, Georg Jacobs, Laura Stößel, Ralf Schelenz, and Björn Juretzki
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 427–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-427-2021, 2021
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Wind farm sites in complex terrain are subject to local wind phenomena, which are difficult to quantify but have a huge impact on a wind turbine's annual energy production. Therefore, a wind sensor was applied on an unmanned aerial vehicle and validated against stationary wind sensors with good agreement. A measurement over complex terrain showed local deviations from the mean wind speed of approx. ± 30 %, indicating the importance of an extensive site evaluation to reduce investment risk.
Ervin Bossanyi and Renzo Ruisi
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 389–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-389-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-389-2021, 2021
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This paper describes the design and field testing of a controller for reducing wake interactions on a wind farm. Reducing the power of some turbines weakens their wakes, allowing other turbines to produce more power so that the total wind farm power may increase. There have been doubts that this is feasible, but these field tests on a full-scale wind farm indicate that this goal has been achieved, also providing convincing validation of the model used for designing the controller.
Carlo Cossu
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 377–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-377-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-377-2021, 2021
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In this study wake redirection and axial-induction control are combined to mitigate turbine–wake interactions, which have a negative impact on the performance and lifetime of wind farms. The results confirm that substantial power gains are obtained when overinduction is combined with tilt control. More importantly, the approach is extended to the case of yaw control, showing that large power gain enhancements are obtained by means of static overinductive yaw control.
Joseph C. Y. Lee and M. Jason Fields
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 311–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-311-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-311-2021, 2021
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This review paper evaluates the energy prediction bias in the wind resource assessment process, and the overprediction bias is decreasing over time. We examine the estimated and observed losses and uncertainties in energy production from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 standard. The considerable uncertainties call for further improvements in the prediction methodologies and more observations for validation.
Daniel Vassallo, Raghavendra Krishnamurthy, and Harindra J. S. Fernando
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 295–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-295-2021, 2021
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Machine learning is quickly becoming a commonly used technique for wind speed and power forecasting and is especially useful when combined with other forecasting techniques. This study utilizes a popular machine learning algorithm, random forest, in an attempt to predict the forecasting error of a statistical forecasting model. Various atmospheric characteristics are used as random forest inputs in an effort to discern the most useful atmospheric information for this purpose.
Luca Lanzilao and Johan Meyers
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 247–271, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-247-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-247-2021, 2021
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This research paper investigates the potential of thrust set-point optimization in large wind farms for mitigating gravity-wave-induced blockage effects for the first time, with the aim of increasing the wind-farm energy extraction. The optimization tool is applied to almost 2000 different atmospheric states. Overall, power gains above 4 % are observed for 77 % of the cases.
Bart M. Doekemeijer, Stefan Kern, Sivateja Maturu, Stoyan Kanev, Bastian Salbert, Johannes Schreiber, Filippo Campagnolo, Carlo L. Bottasso, Simone Schuler, Friedrich Wilts, Thomas Neumann, Giancarlo Potenza, Fabio Calabretta, Federico Fioretti, and Jan-Willem van Wingerden
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 159–176, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-159-2021, 2021
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This article presents the results of a field experiment investigating wake steering on an onshore wind farm. The measurements show that wake steering leads to increases in power production of up to 35 % for two-turbine interactions and up to 16 % for three-turbine interactions. However, losses in power production are seen for various regions of wind directions. The results suggest that further research is necessary before wake steering will consistently lead to energy gains in wind farms.
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Short summary
An accurate assessment of the wind resource at hub height is necessary for an efficient and bankable wind farm project. Conventional techniques for wind speed vertical extrapolation include a power law and a logarithmic law. Here, we propose a round-robin validation to assess the benefits that a machine-learning-based approach can provide in vertically extrapolating wind speed at a location different from the training site – the most practically useful application for the wind energy industry.
An accurate assessment of the wind resource at hub height is necessary for an efficient and...
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